In recent weeks, the number of migrants on the Belarus-Poland border has decreased, while it has increased on the Russian-Finnish border. As a result, Finland has closed all road crossings with Russia. Meanwhile, Russia has begun arresting migrants tangling around the border with invalid Russian visas and has introduced a law restricting their rights.

A Somali man told Russia’s BBC how he entered Russia on a tourist visa in the summer of 2023, then was spushbacked twice from the Belarus-Poland border. When a migrant in his group died from a beating in the Bialowieza Forest, he decided to try his luck at the Finnish border. Nearby, however, he was arrested for overstaying his visa.

After several days in Petrozavod detention, he and other migrants were to be offered an extension of their stay in Russia. They were reportedly told, without going into details, that “if they sign the documents, they will have to work for the state for a year, and then they can stay in Russia.” On the same day, twelve people – including the Somali man in question – boarded a bus bound for the Russian-Ukrainian border.

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When the migrants realized what awaited them – in addition to Somalis, they included Arabs and a Cuban – they wanted to withdraw from the deal, which was drawn up in Russian. The service was first to threaten them with a decade in a Russian prison, and eventually let them go. The group will most likely face deportation to their countries of origin.

BBC journalists found that the problem is affecting more migrants from countries in the global South. The Russian-Finnish border became popular among them in the first half of November. Earlier in the day, news cooed on social media that the services there were letting third-country citizens without Schengen visas through Russian checkpoints. According to the findings of Russian and Finnish journalists, smugglers wanted between $2,000 and $5,000 to organize such trips from Moscow.

It is unclear how many people were tempted by such an offer. What is known for this is that roughly a thousand migrants managed to cross the border in November. They made their way through the freezing temperatures on bicycles, scooters and skateboards, because on foot – by Russia’s decision – is not allowed. Since recently, it has also been forbidden – by Finland’s decision – to use a car with Russian plates. Just days after an increase in asylum seekers, Finland has closed more road crossings with Russia. Around the same time, Russia began arresting migrants tangling around the border with invalid Russian visas.

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Finland was ready for such a scenario – a similar situation already took place in late 2015 and early 2016 (at that time there was talk of an “Arctic migration route”). Migrants on bicycles showed up at the Finnish border after their asylum requests were no longer accepted by Norway, or more specifically, its then polar night-shrouded corner. As they did earlier this year, Russian services overnight stopped requiring Schengen visas for those interested in going to the border post. Finland has therefore accused Russia of exerting migration pressure.

– The crisis was ended at the time with high-level talks, recalls Damian Szacawa, an expert on the crisis. Baltic countries from the Central Europe Institute. – Russia forced them on Finland, which avoided contact with its eastern neighbor after the annexation of Crimea in 2014. I suppose that this time, too, the Russians wanted to get the Finns to resume contacts between politicians.

Traditionally – that is, since the end of World War II – Finland has sought to remain neutral in its dealings with world powers. It definitively broke with this after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. In April of this year it joined NATO, and in October it completed negotiations on strengthening defense cooperation (DCA) with the US. According to Szacawa – as well as leading Finnish politicians – it was this recent event that made Russia decide to restart the Finnish route.

– Or at least fire it off in a trial capacity as a threat, the expert specifies. – Less than a thousand border crossings is nothing compared to what happened at least on the Polish-Belarusian one.

The situation on both borders is sometimes compared – both Russia and Belarus, which is under its influence, weaponize people who seek a better life in Europe. Both routes were created as a result of the activities of the services, which then improved their operation to a greater or lesser extent. However, that is where the similarity ends. Although the response from Finland’s center-right government was firm, there was no beating of migrants, unlawful pushback or blocking of activists and journalists.

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– Heated tents appeared at border crossings, where Finnish border guards accepted asylum applications, Szacawa explained. – The migrants were then placed in reception centers, and their applications went to the Finnish Immigration Service. They are to be processed on an expedited basis, as there are suspicions that these individuals mostly lack grounds to apply for international protection.

The same procedure was followed by migrants who were caught crossing the border outside border crossings. – Information about two such cases has been made public, the expert says.

Unlike Poland, Finland decided to internationalize the whole problem and applied to Frontex for help. – Dozens of officers from this agency, including Arabic speakers, arrived at the border,” says Damian Szacawa. – The Finns also benefit from the experience of the Poles, who have been accused by Belarus of violating Belarusian airspace by using drones to monitor the border. So Finland, wanting to improve its monitoring capabilities, moved the planned fence a little further from the border.

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The Finns are acting with white gloves, but they are holding firmly to an anti-migrant course. A fence is being erected on the border with Russia, the military is helping, and road border crossings remain closed until December 13. – The construction of the fence was still decided by the previous center-left government, Szacawa notes. – Under him, the Border Guard Law was also amended, allowing the suspension of the acceptance of applications for international protection at more road crossings in November. Currently, this is only possible on those offshore and on the air.

The restriction of asylum law has sparked opposition from activists, the Finnish Ombudsman for Asylum. discrimination and UNHCR. It’s also a hassle for thousands of Ukrainians who are fleeing to Europe from territories occupied by Russia and Scandinavian countries. Hundreds of Finns – primarily Russian speakers, for whom the authorities’ decision makes work and family life more difficult – protested against the border closure in December. – Border closures also do not please border business owners, Szacawa adds. – However, the vast majority of Finns – three-quarters according to recent opinion polls – support their government’s actions.

And what if, once the borders are open, Russia makes it easier for more migrants to travel to the border? The expert believes that it depends on the scale. As long as there are enough places in the reception centers, Finland will accept migrants as before – even if they come across the green border. The fence is unlikely to stop them, as only a few of the planned two hundred kilometers have been built, and the Russian-Finnish border is more than one thousand three hundred kilometers long. In addition, some people may be diverted to the border with Norway or Estonia. – However, if the number of migrants exceeds Finland’s logistical capacity, we can expect a tighter course, Szacawa speculates. – According to the survey, three-quarters of Finns believe that the government, in order to ensure the safety of its citizens, has the right to temporarily suspend compliance with international obligations.

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Meanwhile, the Russian Interior Ministry has drafted a bill providing for “controlled stay” for migrants who have lost their right to stay in the country. In Russia, this is not too difficult – sometimes not paying a bribe is enough. The new law is expected to prohibit “illegals,” among other things. Opening bank accounts, transferring money, driving. And pushing them even deeper into the grayest of Russian zones is sure to make many choose the latter when asked “deportation or Ukraine.” Therefore, it cannot be ruled out that Russia will start blackmailing the EU: either you accept these people, or we will send them to the front.

The tightening of Russian migration policy is not aimed solely at people wandering between Minsk and Murmansk in search of a gateway to Europe. It is primarily a bogeyman for the more than 10 million migrants living in Russia. Most come from the former Soviet Union (mainly Central Asia), but also from the global South. According to estimates, up to 7 million of them do not have the appropriate papers. And they are already forced to function like subhumans, spent at the mercy of their employers, racist militias and corrupt officials, before the new law is passed.

In Russia, anti-migrant discourse has recently taken a turn for the worse. Politicians, celebrities or representatives of the Orthodox Church are proposing further “solutions to Russian problems,” such as a ban on the admission of non-Russian-speaking children to schools, forced mobilization for dual passport holders or collective family responsibility for crimes committed in Russia. Patriarch Kirill in October declared that unregulated migration is a threat to Russia’s cultural traditions, a statement recently echoed by Vladimir Putin.

So it looks like Russia won’t have to make a special effort to attract the attention of smugglers advertising their services around the world. Migrants wanting to flee it to Europe could be in the millions.

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