The far-right fairy tale "Great Replacement" dismantled

The fairy tale of the so-called “Great Replacement” is one of the most influential conspiracy myths of the far right. It claims that the “native” population is being deliberately replaced through migration – a claim that is scientifically unfounded and contradicts the fundamental principles of the constitution. But one that nonetheless is increasingly reflected in public discourse. We explain how this narrative works, what rhetorical tricks and logical fallacies are behind it, and why it is so appealing. Those who understand how this story is constructed will recognize its manipulative patterns more quickly – and can counter it with well-founded arguments in discussions.

Old racial theories in new guise

Instead of addressing concrete issues like housing shortages and childcare places, some media outlets spread a racist fear debate in their coverage of demographic change: For example, the Berlin Newspaper recently propagated the right-wing conspiracy myth of the so-called “Great Replacement” in an article. The author expresses concern in the non-ideologically marked article about the population development in Germany.

He claims that it is not about the myth in question and describes it as “fear projection.” However, the content of the text shows recognizable features of classic conspiracy narratives. For example, the article appears scientific because it mentions statistics and makes future projections, but it lacks concrete sources. The German population is assigned a “collective” stressed victim role. Furthermore, the author paints a horror scenario involving street protests and riots like in France and adopts the right-wing term “biodeutsche Bevölkerung” (ethnically German population).

At first glance, one might not even notice that behind it lies a conspiracy-ideological core. Those who find the headline convincing will find the subsequent argumentation about population development quite sensible. But the very idea of selling migration as “loss experiences” is a logical fallacy. Science agrees: migration and refugee movements are part of human existence, and this is not a phenomenon of recent years. No matter how we look or where we come from – all humans have some migration experience. It is therefore false and scientifically unfounded to claim there is a distinction between a “biodeutsche” population and a “migration background.”

No longer a fringe phenomenon

The insidious thing about conspiracy myths like this? Those who deliberately spread them are very aware of using rhetorical manipulation tricks like cherry-picking. Here, individual birth or migration figures from scientific studies are deliberately selected to support claims of a threatened “biodeutsche Bevölkerung.” Logical fallacies are also common deception tactics. For example, conclusions about birth rates do not really match the data they rely on. From a scientific perspective, prognoses are no guarantees, and the causes of declining birth rates are complex.

The narrative of the “Great Replacement” is no longer a fringe phenomenon but is increasingly visible in public discourse. This is suggested by seemingly journalistic articles in established but controversial media outlets like the Berliner Zeitung. Classic international examples from politics include Italian Prime Minister Georgia Meloni or Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán.

The AfD also uses this narrative

In Germany, it is particularly noticeable that politicians of the AfD and the party itself regularly use terms that fit exactly into this linguistic pattern. A number of examples are listed by the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution in a report that is currently the basis for a ban on the AfD. The report spans more than 1,000 pages. The authors compile statements from AfD members of parliament, programmatic writings, and social media posts that have been examined over several years. As tagesschau.de reports, the report was originally classified as secret.

Controversial media such as Cicero or Nius have, however, published parts of the document – with the note that transparency and public debate are important. The report dedicates a separate chapter to the “Great Replacement,” but the idea runs through almost the entire document, analyzed at belltower.news. Accordingly, the narrative is spread across all party hierarchies, and it is noticeable that new variations of the term have increased. Currently, the Federal Ministry of the Interior is having the report professionally examined.

The fact that especially the term “Remigration,” used by the AfD, has entered common language is made clear by the Unword of the Year 2023. Also, the recent controversial “cityscape” statement by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz reeks of motifs from the “Great Replacement”. And a look at a scientific study using original data from a survey in 10 EU countries in 2022 adds further fuel: 41 percent of about 20,400 respondents agree somewhat or completely that there is a group of people trying to “replace the native population with immigrants.” So why does this myth of the “Great Replacement” resonate with so many people?

“Designed from the start to be compatible”

Nadja Kutscher researched the far right for her dissertation at Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg and explored this question in her book titled “The Narrative of the ‘Great Replacement’” in detail. According to her assessments, this conspiracy myth is so successful because it can be well integrated with other topics like a puzzle piece. “The ‘Great Replacement’ was designed from the outset to be compatible, and this structure is no coincidence. Migration and birth rates have been deliberately used as themes in this narrative, as they are found in broader discourses and not just among the extreme right.”

Kutscher also says she would not categorize the story as a form of legitimate critique of migration – far from it.

“I think it’s important to strip this narrative of its appearance, because it is, after all, a story with a very specific goal, also a political one. It always involves a complete rejection of emancipatory achievements and of people in this country who are racialized.”

The story is thus deliberately formulated to appear credible. In the end, it aims to downplay or belittle progress in equality and to find reasons – such as skin color, name, or origin – to pigeonhole and devalue people.

The depicted danger image is anything but new

The core of the claim revolves around the racist appeal to survive as a group because Western societies like those in Europe or the USA are seen as threatened. This narrative is not new, and we see this quite clearly in the identity politics of US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Both are successful with their “culture wars” and divide the population. According to the “Great Replacement” story, one’s own group must be decisively protected from three enemies:

•      powerful elites allegedly controlling demographic change or being partly responsible for demographic developments

•      inactive fellow citizens

•      immigrants or “native” Muslims (especially in the European context)

The depicted danger image is anything but new

Doomsday scenarios for the nation already had their heyday around World War I. For example, the population statistician Friedrich Burgdörfer warned in his writings about the “aging of the people” and the “death of the people” of the German “people’s body”, which was later adopted in parts by Nazi ideology. Oswald Spengler’s book “The Decline of the West” from 1918 also plays into this. Internationally, the 1916 work “The Decline of the Great Race” by American Madison Grant is influential.

Today, the narrative of the “Great Replacement” is mainly associated with the French writer Renaud Camus. In 2011, he published his book “Le Grand Remplacement.” In it, he establishes the typical enemy images familiar to us, such as supposedly fertile and violent people from Africa and the Middle East. This made him a defining ideologue of the New Right, which also explicitly refers to him, as detailed in Kutscher’s book.

Social media and messenger groups especially help spread far-right ideas and conspiracy beliefs, to radicalize their followers: (or those who want to become one). The consequences of this can be seen in right-wing terrorist attacks such as the Norwegian Utøya 2011, in Halle 2019, and in the US Buffalo 2022. Because the perpetrators referred in their manifestos to the ideology behind the “Great Replacement.” Not least, this underscores how important it is to recognize the features of this globally popular myth. As is typical for conspiracy narratives, it often appears credible and taps into fears and insecurities that many people already have.

Tips for uncovering suspicious content

To uncover videos, memes, & co. with conspiracy-believing worldviews about the “Great Replacement,” it is advisable to proceed analytically. Pay attention to the structure of arguments, word choice, and design. The most important clues at a glance:

• Statements that fundamentally question migration and equality – and also distinguish between integration and Germans by origin (“biodeutsche” vs. “the others”)

• References to authors like Renaud Camus and Alain de Benoist

• Right-wing keywords such as “Remigration,” “Great Transformation,” “population exchange,” “resettlement,” “replacement migration,” and “race death.”

• Strong emotionalization and threat rhetoric, such as “We will be wiped out” or “Europe is dying,” intended to evoke fear and prevent critical examination.

• Assignments to main culprits like “economic and financial elites,” “controlled system,” “UN,” and sometimes antisemitic references like “Jewish elites,” “financial capital,” “Rothschild,” “FED,” and George Soros as concrete enemies.

• Racially charged portrayals of migrants as supposedly lazy, promiscuous, unintelligent savages (motif of the uncivilized other and stupidity), sexually unrestrained and sexually violent (sex motif).

• Orientation towards traditional family images and portrayals of women as both victims of sexual assaults and accomplices in the “race death.”

• Vague references to statistics on demographic change or crime statistics without citing sources.

• Use of statistics that do not meet classic scientific quality criteria, such as reliability of measurement results.

• Rhetorical manipulation tricks like logical fallacies or “cherry-picking.”

Conclusion

The conspiracy myth of the “Great Replacement” is one of the most well-known and has already served as a justification for deadly terrorist attacks in several cases worldwide. It describes an apocalyptic scenario similar to those in disaster movies. It claims that the “native, white” population is deliberately being replaced by immigrants. This ties into common societal fears and debates about demographic developments and provides seemingly simple explanations for complex problems.

To make the story attractive, typical rhetorical strategies such as emotionalization, cherry-picking, and pseudoscientific birth and crime statistics are used. Elements of this narrative – especially the term “Remigration” – have entered everyday language. This demonstrates how successful the New Right is in normalizing racist and nationalist ideologies both within and outside Germany. And this is only one reason to recognize the tricks behind such stories and to have the courage to discuss migration openly and fairly.

Article image: dpa / picture alliance / Lise Aserud (Breivik); Kay Nietfeld/dpa (Weidel)