Turkish opposition must radicalize. For now, Erdoğan is choosing its leaders.

The political landscape of Turkey over the past quarter-century has been practically unchanged – dominated by the conservative Justice and Development Party (AKP), firmly holding the reins of government, while the center-left Republican People's Party (CHP) leads the opposition, unable to seriously threaten the power of the president (and previously the prime minister) Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

However, now the CHP, which appeals to Atatürk and Kemalism, may lose its position as one of the main political forces in the country, not due to a decline in popularity, but because of an offensive by the authorities. Previously, AKP-controlled state bodies delegalized parties such as Kurdish and leftist parties, but the ongoing frontal attack on the main opposition party is unprecedented. What has provoked it?

Punishment for electoral success

The biggest misconduct of the CHP was the electoral victory achieved by Kemalists in the 2024 local elections by winning 38 percent of the votes and for the first time surpassing AKP. They not only secured almost all major cities but also broke into provincial strongholds of the ruling party, posing a serious challenge to Erdoğan’s regime.

In response to the rising popularity of the opposition, authorities have launched a series of investigations, arrests, and trials against its activists, as well as a media campaign portraying government opponents as corrupt or linked to terrorism. The most symbolic example of these actions was the case of Ekrem İmamoğlu, the mayor of Istanbul and a potential rival to Erdoğan in the presidential elections. He was arrested in March last year, and the prosecutor’s office, based on numerous and highly dubious charges, demands a sentence of up to 2,352 years in prison for the popular politician.

Simultaneously, hundreds of other opposition politicians and local officials associated with CHP were detained. After mass protests against the arrests of opposition activists, thousands of demonstrators were also detained. Among those repressed were journalists, unionists, artists, teachers, and social activists. The number of victims of AKP rule is thus growing, and consequently, so are potential allies of Kemalists – but Erdoğan and his henchmen do not intend to make it easier for their opponents to consolidate around the largest opposition party.

When the ruling authorities assess the opposition congress

The pretext for a direct attack on CHP was the alleged irregularities during the organization of the Kemalist congress in 2023, during which new party leadership was elected. The longtime leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu (who lost the presidential elections that same year) was replaced by Özgür Özel, promising to breathe new life into the party and lead it to the long-awaited victory. The aforementioned local election successes positively indicated the prospects of fulfilling these promises, even despite the wave of repression that soon followed.

However, the authorities decided not to stop at the arrests of opposition mayors and intensified the campaign against CHP itself. The culmination was the annulment by the court of the last party congress due to alleged irregularities in voting. Such a ruling means restoring Kılıçdaroğlu to the CHP leadership, which he seems pleased with – perhaps the former Erdoğan rival, after his personal defeat, decided to settle for the role of leader of a concessionary opposition. In any case, he refused to immediately relinquish the position he was reinstated to, deepening the crisis within the party. Meanwhile, the ruling authorities began removing the “illegal” leadership of the opposition group.

Videos circulated showing police storming the headquarters of the Republican People’s Party, during which tear gas was used and activists were forcibly expelled from the building. Soon after, law enforcement dispersed protesters with water cannons. Özel points to Erdoğan as the main instigator of the entire chaos, accusing the president of wanting to break the only party that could deprive him of power. This is probably an accurate diagnosis, which does not bode well for the prospects of resolving the internal crisis within CHP.

If Kılıçdaroğlu continues to stubbornly hold his position and the politicized judiciary maintains its stance, a real possibility is the formation of a new party by Özel – according to polls, it would almost entirely take over the current CHP electorate, but without existing resources and structures, it will be harder to oppose Erdoğan’s regime. Not that the Kemalists have been doing well so far.

The autocrat and his court hold firmly

The Turkish opposition has long seemed to have no effective response to state repression. With each year, Erdoğan pushes further, adopting new forms of persecuting his political opponents. Control over the media and purges in the public administration are no longer enough – mass arrests of all open critics of the government are underway. CHP and other parties have repeatedly mobilized crowds to protest such practices, but have failed to force Erdoğan to retreat even a step.

In their defense, opposition leaders point to the aforementioned electoral advances. Since the local elections, CHP remains the most popular party in the country and, under normal conditions, would be a clear favorite to win the presidency at the next opportunity. The problem is that the conditions are not normal. If Erdoğan and his supporters have no qualms about such treatment of the opposition, why would they allow themselves to be deprived of power in a democratic vote? Election manipulation is just another boundary that autocrats can cross if necessary.

In this situation, CHP clearly lacks a plan B. Kemalists boast of having numerous martyrs, asserting their moral superiority over the corrupt and autocratic government, but this will not bring down the new sultan. Although Özel appears to be a more effective party leader than his predecessor, it is hard to speak of a different vision for policy or an alternative plan of action in case of further repression by the authorities.

At one time, reasonable ideas included striking at oligarchs linked to AKP, e.g., through boycotting their businesses. However, there was a lack of determination in executing this strategy – for example, by attempting to paralyze the entire country, organizing widespread strikes, or mobilizing society beyond standard demonstrations. CHP refrains from methods that disrupt public order, but increasing signs suggest that they cannot win in any other way. The Turkish opposition must either radicalize or accept being managed by an inherently autocratic regime. At this stage, there may no longer be a third way.

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