Sánchez is breaking records, but it will become increasingly difficult to set new ones.

In mid-May, Pedro Sánchez became the second longest-serving Prime Minister in the history of democratic Spain. He surpassed Zapatero and Aznar, and although he still has a long way to go to Felipe González, it is still an impressive result. Especially considering that during these nearly eight years (the anniversary of taking office falls on June 2), Sánchez has never had a stable parliamentary majority and has constantly had to rely on fragile alliances with smaller parties.

However, many indications suggest that the government of the PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) will come to an end after the parliamentary elections scheduled for next year. Polls are unfavorable and predict a victory for the right, i.e., the conservative People's Party (PP) and the nationalist Vox. Negative trends are confirmed by recent regional elections.

Andalusia a bad omen?

On Sunday, May 17, a vote took place in Andalusia, which, after elections in Aragon and Castile, brought the third triumph of the right since the beginning of the year. This time, the defeat was even more painful for PSOE because it concerned the most populous autonomous community in Spain, and a traditional stronghold of the socialists. Although its loss occurred already in 2018, the inability to reverse the situation does not bode well for PSOE’s chances of maintaining power across the country. Additionally, in Andalusia, the PP lost its independent majority, which means joint rule with Vox, and each subsequent such coalition at the regional level normalizes the radical right, fostering further growth in support for it, which now amounts to about 17 percent.

This is currently one of Pedro Sánchez’s biggest problems. Over the years, the Prime Minister of Spain has been able to present himself as the last barrier against the extreme right, a politician capable of keeping the country on a stable course despite polarization, crises, and the disintegration of the traditional party system. In recent years, however, a clear two-bloc system has taken shape, with PSOE and left-wing and regionalist parties on one side, and PP and Vox on the other, with the latter exerting an increasingly weaker deterrent effect. After years of quite fragile rule by a diverse coalition centered around Sánchez, a two-party right-wing alliance might now seem like a better guarantee of stability.

The opposition also benefits from legal problems faced by members of the government. During nearly a decade of PSOE rule, the corruption of the PP has faded into the background, and scandals involving social democratic politicians have come to the forefront. During the current parliamentary term, corruption allegations have affected, among others, the former Minister of Transport, Prime Minister José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero, as well as close family members of Sánchez – his wife and younger brother. The Prime Minister considers attacks on these last individuals to be unfounded and accuses the right of instrumentalizing the justice system, but his administration is increasingly associated with financial misappropriations. This allows him to overshadow the successes of the left-wing government and makes various efforts of his leader seem futile.

Strong cards for Sánchez

The effectiveness in managing the country works in favor of PSOE. The Spanish economy is growing at a rate three times faster than the average for the eurozone, surpassing, for example, Italy by five times in this regard. Unemployment has fallen to the lowest level since the 2008 financial crisis, and real wages have increased more than in other Western European countries. The popular Minister of Economy, Carlos Cuerpo, due to such results, was recently promoted to Deputy Prime Minister, and there is speculation that he could someday lead a center-left government. The question is whether he would be able to match the political dexterity of Sánchez, who is adept at reading social moods and conducting public debate on his own terms.

A good example is the recent legalization of residence for half a million immigrants – a step that PSOE long resisted, seeing it as a political risk, and the main promoters of the operation were Sánchez’s leftist allies and NGOs. However, when the government agreed to this proposal, the Prime Minister did not try to make excuses or shift responsibility; on the contrary, he took responsibility for the political storm caused by this move. He appeared as a leading humanitarian and began to counter anti-immigration rhetoric, to some extent monopolizing the media narrative. Such an attitude by Sánchez, on one hand, consolidates his dominance on the left side of the political scene, but on the other, prevents nationalists from gaining ground on critical issues such as immigration.

Another asset of the Spanish Prime Minister is his foreign policy. Sánchez has recently become a hero even outside his own country due to his unequivocally pro-Palestinian stance and assertiveness towards Donald Trump. As one of the few European leaders, he is able to stand up to Americans, which earns him sympathy among his compatriots – the turmoil around Palestine and Iran has led to a rebound for PSOE in polls, although still insufficient to consider victory in elections. Unfazed, Sánchez went further, organizing in April in Barcelona a summit of progressives from around the world, gathering left-wing leaders like Claudia Sheinbaum and Luli da Silva. The goal was to inspire new hope among the progressive camp and show that it is possible to resist the right-wing offensive.

Within Spain itself, the success of these efforts remains uncertain. Sánchez remains an effective parliamentary player, but increasingly struggles to mobilize his voters. Some are disappointed with the unfulfilled promises – for example, Catalan regionalists supporting the government blocked a reform to shorten the workweek, which is not the only example of smaller partners thwarting government plans – while others are hindered by further corruption scandals. Additionally, there is more serious disillusionment among key social democratic allies.

PSOE alone will not suffice

Even if in the upcoming elections Sánchez manages to push his team to a higher gear and secure a result above expectations, it will be of little use if the social democrats lack more radical left partners. Currently, that left is in a state of disarray – Podemos is a shadow of its former strength, and Sumar has also lost momentum, with its leader Yolanda Diaz already announcing she will step back after the next elections. If they were held today, parties to the left of PSOE could together count on just a few dozen seats, partly due to the electoral system favoring the largest parties (in each region, not necessarily nationwide). This leads to considering various coalitions that could give the left a chance to stay in power.

The most obvious solution is the re-unification of Sumar and Podemos (both parties ran together in 2023), but in such a scenario, the left, with current support levels, would still be far from a parliamentary majority. Therefore, the idea of adding regional leftist parties, led by Catalonia’s ERC (Republican Left of Catalonia) and its leader Gabriele Rufián, is gaining popularity. He is considered a potential leader of such a coalition. This would maximize the number of seats won, giving the left about 60 seats in parliament, which could prevent the formation of a PP-Vox government.

However, it is hard to shake the impression that such calculations and seat-counting reflect the current weakness of progressive forces, whose survival may depend only on tactical moves like these. It is also surprising that the left is not heading towards defeat due to poor management of the country – macroeconomic indicators are favorable for Spain, especially compared to other Western and Southern European countries. Nonetheless, after eight years of Sánchez’s government, his supporters and allies mainly feel fatigue. Although this may be natural after such a long tenure, and obstructions from some coalition partners have left their mark, recent regional elections should give the Spanish left something to think about. Either a serious internal shake-up will occur within the ruling camp, or they can only wait for the right to win again next year.

The post Sánchez sets records, but it will get harder to do so first appeared on Krytyka Polityczna.