After a triple check, researchers have found errors in key fertilizer figures.

Økologisk Nu
After a triple check, researchers have found errors in key fertilizer figures.

Researchers at Aarhus University have discovered an error in their calculations that are part of the upcoming nitrogen regulation. The university announced this in a press release. The error was found after the Agency for Green Land Use and Water Environment (SGAV) urged the researchers to review the calculations provided by the university for setting the fallow land point in the new nitrogen regulation. During a triple check of the datasets, the researchers identified a technical error in the accounting of livestock manure and confirmed what Seges assessed last week as a mistake in the calculations. The error concerns the dataset for spring barley with catch crops and has significance in areas where a lot of livestock manure is used. Why it wasn't discovered earlier The error was not found in the initial analysis for two reasons: firstly, the data are relatively complex, and secondly, the effect of implementing new elements in the calculations was, in some cases, greater than the effect of the incorrect accounting of livestock manure. It was overshadowed by the new elements in the calculations. "This is not an attempt at an excuse — it is simply the explanation. The responsibility for ensuring the accuracy of the figures lies solely with us. We did not deliver as we should have, and we deeply regret that. I want to apologize to the agency and all affected stakeholders," said Jørgen Eriksen, professor and section leader at the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University, in the press release. Aarhus University is now arranging a process with SGAV to analyze the extent of the error and to correct it. Although the error is limited to the dataset for spring barley with catch crops, it could have significant implications for individual farmers, and therefore, a correct professional basis for setting the fallow land point must be established as soon as possible. "Now it’s about correcting the calculation basis as quickly as possible so we can move forward. There will also be adjustments in the future, as we continuously work to improve the model, in line with new data being added. We look forward to continuing the collaboration on ongoing development with the agency and in the upcoming Nuar committee," said Jørgen Eriksen. Correction within a week The new nitrogen regulation was agreed upon as part of the green tripartite agreement and will apply — with some exceptions for fruit, berry, and vegetable production — from January 1, 2027. Until now, the regulation mainly concerned how much fertilizer farmers are allowed to apply. With the new regulation, each farmer will instead have a quota for how much nitrogen can be discharged from fields into coastal waters, and they can choose how to comply — for example, with catch crops, crop rotation changes, or reduced fertilizer use. The requirements are set based on how much nitrogen the individual coastal water area can tolerate. In a written comment to Ritzau, Minister for Nature and Animal Welfare Christian Rabjerg Madsen (S) stated that he has been made aware of the error. "I take this very seriously, and it must be corrected so that everyone can trust the data on which nitrogen emission regulation is based." Jørgen E. Olesen, professor and head of the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University, told DR News that the error will be corrected within a week and that they are not aware of any other errors in the data provided by the researchers to the authorities in this case.

Researchers at Aarhus University have found an error in their calculations, which are part of the upcoming nitrogen regulation.

The university announced this in a press release.

The error was discovered after the Agency for Green Land Use and Water Environment (SGAV) urged the researchers to review the calculations provided by the university for setting the fallow land point in the new nitrogen regulation.

During a triple-check of the datasets, the researchers identified a technical error in the accounting of livestock manure and confirmed what Seges assessed last week as a mistake in the calculations. The error concerns the dataset for spring barley with catch crop and has implications where a lot of livestock manure is used.

Therefore, it was not discovered earlier

The error was not found in the initial analysis for two reasons: partly because the data is relatively complex, and partly because the effect of implementing new elements in the calculations was, in some cases, greater than the effect of the incorrect accounting of livestock manure. It was overshadowed by the new elements in the calculations.

"This is not an attempt at an excuse – it is simply the explanation. The responsibility for ensuring the accuracy of the numbers lies solely with us. We have not delivered as we should have, and we deeply regret that. I want to apologize to the agency and to all affected stakeholders," says Jørgen Eriksen, professor and section leader at the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University in the press release.

Aarhus University is now arranging a process with SGAV, which will analyze the extent of the error and correct it. Although the error is limited to the dataset for spring barley with catch crop, it could have significant implications for individual farmers and therefore a correct professional basis for setting the fallow land point must be established as soon as possible.

"Now it’s about correcting the calculation basis as quickly as possible so we can look forward. There will also be adjustments in the future, as we continuously work to improve the model, in line with new data being added. We look forward to continuing the collaboration on ongoing development with the agency and in the upcoming Nuar committee," says Jørgen Eriksen.

Corrected within a week

The new nitrogen regulation was agreed upon as part of the green tripartite agreement and will apply – with some exceptions within fruit, berry, and vegetable production – from January 1, 2027.

Until now, the regulation mainly concerned how much fertilizer the farmer is allowed to apply. With the new regulation, each farmer will instead have a quota for how much nitrogen can be discharged from the fields into coastal waters, and can choose how to comply – for example, with catch crops, changed crop rotation, or less fertilizer. The requirements are set based on how much nitrogen the individual coastal water area can tolerate.

In a written comment to Ritzau, Minister for Nature and Animal Welfare Christian Rabjerg Madsen (S) stated that he has been made aware of the error.

"I take this very seriously, and it must be corrected so that everyone can trust the data on which nitrogen emission regulation is based."

Jørgen E. Olesen, professor and head of the Department of Agroecology at Aarhus University, says to DR News that the error will be corrected within a week, and that they are not aware of any other errors in the data provided by the researchers to the authorities in this case.