Minister acknowledges errors in nitrogen calculations for organic pigs
Økologisk NuThe new nitrogen regulation, which is due to enter into force on 1 January 2027 to reduce the amount of manure in our coastal waters and bring more life to them, has been hit by new misleading calculations, several experts believe. Vegetable producers have already been exempted from the regulation during its first year, and Aarhus University has since acknowledged an error in the data on set-aside land that needs to be corrected. Now experts point out that emissions from organic pigs are calculated in the nitrogen model as being far higher than they actually are. And Minister for Nature and Animal Welfare Christian Rabjerg Madsen (Social Democrats) agrees with them: “I agree. And although I cannot sign off on it today, I guarantee that we are working intensively to solve this challenge,” the minister said on Wednesday when he met organic farmers at a dialogue meeting organised by the Danish Organic Association at the Scandic Hotel in Kolding. He said that he himself had asked his officials how this could be the case, and that he had been told that the calculations did not correspond to reality. “And that simply won’t do. We need the Excel spreadsheet and reality to match,” he said. **Twice as much nitrogen on paper** The issue was raised by Claus Østergaard, head of ØkologiRådgivning Danmark, who described a pig farm that leaves 3,000 kilograms of nitrogen in the field, while the nitrogen model calculates that the field releases 6,000 kilograms of nitrogen. “In our view, that is a bit like being taxed at 200 percent,” Claus Østergaard said. According to him, the errors in the model are so significant that, under the current rules, it is impossible for pig producers to keep their animals outdoors. And that affects a core aspect of organic farming: “Outdoor pigs are a prerequisite for good animal welfare,” he said. Simme Eriksen, chief consultant and team leader for livestock systems at the Innovation Centre for Organic Farming, pointed out that the error does not lie in the way the model performs its calculations as such. He believes the figure may be correct for fields without grass—it simply does not reflect reality for the vast majority of organic pigs. “I don’t think you should ask whether the figure is correct, because it may well be correct for one percent,” he told the minister. According to Simme Eriksen, the solution is to create two codes in the nitrogen calculator instead of the single code currently used by the model: one for fields without grass and one for farms that maintain grass cover. Otherwise, he warned, half the sector could be forced to close. “That is precisely the work we have embarked on,” Christian Rabjerg Madsen replied. **Will not repeat the mistakes of the past** The minister referred to potatoes, where the regulation also used the same leaching code for all types, even though starch potatoes remain in the soil longer than new potatoes. The authorities corrected the error in that case, but he would not promise a specific outcome for organic pigs. “I hope and believe—without you having heard me guarantee it—that we can find a solution so that the actual leaching is also reflected in the calculated leaching effect.” However, he remains firm that, even though the legislation and calculations are not perfect, the regulation will not be postponed, because the aquatic environment has already paid a high price for the many years in which action has been delayed. “Challenges in data models and new calculations will not be a reason for postponing things, because then we would be making exactly the same mistake that politicians before me have made many times—and I do not believe that falls within my mandate. We need to become wiser, and I would like to discuss the robustness of measurements in the Skagerrak, emissions from different crops, and calculation errors at Aarhus University—even though I would rather have avoided them. But it will never be the case that a calculation error at Aarhus University is an argument for not taking better care of our soil. So the task remains unchanged, but of course we must continue to improve,” the minister said.
The new nitrogen regulation, which is due to enter into force on 1 January 2027 to give our inland waters less slurry and more life, has been hit by new misleading calculations, several experts believe.
Vegetable producers have already been exempted from the regulation in the first year, and since then Aarhus University has acknowledged an error in the data on set-aside land, which must be corrected. Now experts point out that emissions from organic pigs in the nitrogen model are being calculated as being far higher than they actually are.
And Minister for Nature and Animal Welfare Christian Rabjerg Madsen (S) agrees with them:
”I agree. And without being able to sign off on it today, I guarantee that we are working intensively to solve that challenge,” the minister said when he met organic farmers on Wednesday at a dialogue meeting organised by the Organic Denmark association at the Scandic Hotel in Kolding.
He said that he himself had asked his officials how this could be the case, and that he had received confirmation that the calculations did not correspond to reality.
”And that simply will not do. We need the Excel spreadsheet and reality to match,” he said.
Twice as much nitrogen on paper
The question was raised by Claus Østergaard, head of ØkologiRådgivning Danmark, who spoke about a pig farm that leaves 3,000 kg of N in the field, while the nitrogen model calculates that the field emits 6,000 kg of N.
”In our view, that is a bit like being taxed at 200 percent,” said Claus Østergaard.
According to him, the errors in the model are so large that it is impossible for pig producers to keep the animals outdoors under the current rules. And that affects a core area of organic farming: ”Pigs outdoors are a prerequisite for good animal welfare,” he said.
Simme Eriksen, who is chief consultant and team leader for livestock systems at the Innovation Centre for Organic Farming, pointed out that the error does not, strictly speaking, lie in the way the model calculates.
The figure may well be correct for fields without grass, he believes—it is just not the reality for the vast majority of organic pigs.
”I don’t think you should ask whether the figure is correct, because it may well be correct for one percent,” he told the minister.
According to Simme Eriksen, the solution is to create two codes in the nitrogen calculator instead of the single code the model currently has: there should be one for fields without grass and one for farms that maintain grass cover. Otherwise, one risks shutting down half the sector, he warned.
”That is precisely the work we have thrown ourselves into,” Christian Rabjerg Madsen replied.
Will not repeat the mistakes of the past
The minister referred to potatoes, where the regulation also used the same leaching code for all types, even though starch potatoes remain in the soil longer than new potatoes. In that case, the authorities corrected the error, but he would not promise a specific outcome for organic pigs.
"I hope and believe—without you having heard me guarantee it—that we can find a solution so that the actual leaching is also reflected in what the leaching effect is."
He is nevertheless standing firm that although the legislation and calculations are not perfect, the regulation will not be postponed, because the aquatic environment has already paid a high price for the many years during which action has been postponed.
"Challenges in data models and new calculations will not be a reason for us to postpone things, because then we will make precisely the same mistake that politicians before me have made many times—and I do not believe that falls within my mandate. We need to become wiser, and I would like to discuss the robustness of measurements in the Skagerrak, I would like to discuss emissions from different crops, and I would like to discuss calculation errors at Aarhus University—even though I would rather have avoided them. It will simply never be the case that a calculation error at Aarhus University is an argument for not taking better care of our soil. So the task remains, but of course we must continue to improve," the minister said.