Organic sales are holding steady, but volume is falling significantly.
Økologisk NuIn the wake of the ongoing price war launched by discount chain Lidl in the spring, 2026 has turned into a challenging year for organic sales in Denmark. While organic retail sales have experienced only a minimal decline since the beginning of the year, there has been a significant drop in volume, according to new figures from the analysis firm Kauza. In terms of value, sales have fallen by just 0.4 percent since the beginning of the year, but measured by volume, the decline has been 8 percent. This emerged from a webinar held by the Danish Organic Association on Wednesday. “Overall, the first three quarters of the year saw a minimal decline of 0.4 percent in organic sales, while the total food market grew by 1.3 percent. So, generally speaking, the food market has seen flat development. This means that organic products are losing a little in terms of market share,” said Peter Rasmussen, business development manager at the Danish Organic Association. According to Kauza, organic products accounted for 12.4 percent of total food sales at the end of September. That is the same level as the previous year, but looking at the volume of the underlying sales, a more challenging picture emerges, with an overall decline of 8 percent during the first three quarters of 2026. “In all the years I have worked with the organic market, this is the largest decline in volume I have experienced,” said Birgitte Jørgensen, the association’s head of retail marketing. Looking exclusively at the third quarter of the year, organic sales declined by 1.2 percent in value, while volume fell by almost 11 percent. However, several factors indicate that the trend is beginning to turn, according to the Danish Organic Association’s marketing department, which is closely monitoring developments. “Fortunately, the curve has turned when it comes to organic products being removed from the chains’ assortments, and in general we can hear that more positive winds are blowing for organic products when we speak with the chains. Now we just need this to be reflected in their assortments, so customers get used to being able to find more organic products in stores again,” Birgitte Jørgensen told Økologisk Nu. **Increased focus on volume** The association’s quarterly market updates are based on figures from the analysis firm Kauza. It tracks organic consumption through purchase receipts from a consumer panel comprising 13,000 households. They record their purchases via an app, and although the figures are not quite as precise as the chains’ own data, the webinar left no doubt that the decline in volume is already a major topic in the association’s ongoing dialogue with both grocery chains and organic producers working to reverse the trend. “This is the same picture we are hearing from the chains and from several of you businesses taking part today,” Peter Rasmussen said about the current situation. “There has been a significant decline in volume, but we have been seeing that for some time, so it is not really anything new. However, it is clear that this is something we will be working much more on in the period ahead,” the business development manager said during his review of current developments in the organic retail market. **Price war widens price gap** The decline in organic consumption is partly the result of organic shoppers buying slightly less frequently. “At the same time, unfortunately, we are also putting slightly fewer organic products in our baskets per shopping trip, and that is what is driving the negative trend,” Peter Rasmussen said. He pointed to the ongoing price war that Lidl began in the spring and which has since spread throughout the grocery market, looking for explanations for the changed consumption pattern. As part of the price war, the chains have primarily cut prices on many conventional staple products. According to calculations by the Danish Organic Association, this has increased the price gap between conventional and organic products. “In September this year, we calculated the price gap between the organic and conventional versions of a range of different foods at a randomly selected Danish chain. We compared this with an analysis we conducted in 2023. We know that this is only a snapshot, but it shows that the price gap for the same basket has increased by 24 percentage points since 2023. That is quite significant, and it will mean that more people check out of organic products and choose a slightly cheaper alternative,” Peter Rasmussen said. **More products need to be put on the shelves** According to Birgitte Jørgensen, sales trends are being affected by several factors over which the association has limited influence, but she assured participants that the marketing department works every day on numerous fronts to persuade the chains to strengthen their organic profile. “It is about being absolutely clear in explaining what added value people get when they take organic products home,” she said. In this connection, she was particularly pleased that Kauza’s figures showed that organic purchases among families with children under eight grew throughout 2026. “It is really wonderful to see them return, because we regard families with children as some of our core consumers. Now the task is to get more organic products onto the shelves so that fewer customers leave empty-handed.”
In the wake of the ongoing price war, which the discount chain Lidl launched in the spring, 2026 has developed into a challenging year for organic sales in Denmark.
While organic retail sales have only experienced a minimal decline in sales since the turn of the year, there has been a significant drop in volume, new figures from the analysis firm Kauza show.
Measured in value, sales have fallen by only 0.4 pct. since the turn of the year, but looking at volume, there has been a decline of 8 pct. This emerged from a webinar held by Organic Denmark on Wednesday.
"Overall, in the first three quarters of the year, there was a minimal decline in organic sales of 0.4 pct., while the total food market increased by 1.3 pct. So generally, there has been flat development in the food market. This means that organic products are losing a little in terms of market share," said Peter Rasmussen, business developer at Organic Denmark.
According to Kauza, organic products accounted for 12.4 pct. of total food sales at the end of September. This is the same level as the year before, but looking at the development in the volume of the underlying sales, a more challenging picture emerges, with a total decline of 8 pct. in the first three quarters of 2026.
"In the many years that I have worked with the organic market, this is the largest decline in volume that I have experienced," said Birgitte Jørgensen, the association’s head of retail marketing.
Looking exclusively at the third quarter of the year, the decline in organic products is 1.2 pct. in value, while volume has fallen by just under 11 pct., but several factors indicate that the trend is beginning to turn, according to the assessment from the marketing department at Organic Denmark, which is following developments closely.
"Fortunately, the curve has turned with regard to the removal of organic products from the chains’ ranges, and in general we can hear that more positive winds are blowing for organic products when we speak with the chains. Now we just need this to be reflected in the ranges, so that customers get used to being able to find more organic products in the shops again," Birgitte Jørgensen tells Organic Now.
Increased focus on volume
The association’s quarterly market updates are based on figures from the analysis firm Kauza. It monitors organic consumption through shopping receipts from a consumer panel comprising 13,000 households. They register their purchases via an app, and although the figures are not quite as precise as the chains’ own figures, the webinar left no doubt that the decline in volume is already something that plays a significant role in the association’s ongoing dialogue with both the grocery chains and the organic producers working to reverse the trend.
"This is the same picture that we hear from the chains and several of you companies who are here today," said Peter Rasmussen about the current situation.
"There has been a significant decline in volume, but we have seen that for some time, so there is not really anything new in that. But clearly, it is something that we will be working much more on in the coming period," said the business developer during his review of the current developments in the organic retail market.
Price war widens price gap
The decline in organic consumption is, among other things, a result of organic shoppers shopping slightly less often.
"At the same time, unfortunately, we also put slightly fewer organic products in the basket per shopping trip, and that is what is driving the negative trend," said Peter Rasmussen.
He turned his attention to the ongoing price war, which Lidl started in the spring and which has since spread throughout the grocery market, to find explanations for the changed consumption pattern.
As part of the price war, the chains have primarily lowered prices on many conventional staple products, and according to Organic Denmark’s calculations, this has increased the price gap between conventional and organic products.
In September this year, we calculated the price gap from the organic variant to the conventional variant for a number of different food products in a random Danish chain. We compared this with an analysis that we conducted in 2023. We know that this is a snapshot, but it shows that the price gap for the same basket has increased by 24 percentage points since 2023. That is quite significant, and it will mean that a few more people opt out of organic products and choose a slightly cheaper variant," said Peter Rasmussen.
More products need to be put on the shelves
According to Birgitte Jørgensen, sales trends are affected by several factors that the association cannot do much about, but she assured that the marketing department works every day on all possible fronts to influence the chains to strengthen their organic profile.
"It is about the fact that we need to be absolutely clear in explaining what added value you take home when you buy organic products," she said.
In this connection, she was particularly pleased that the Kauza figures showed that organic purchases among families with children under eight years old have grown throughout 2026.
"It is really wonderful to see them back, because we regard families with children as some of our core consumers. Now it is about getting more organic products onto the shelves, so that fewer customers leave empty-handed."