Climate change could expose 1.1 billion people to hunger by 2100 (but there is also good news)

From: Giovanni Strona, senior researcher at the European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) More than 295 million people worldwide experienced hunger and famine in 2025 due to conflicts, displacement, climate change, and economic disasters. The bad news is that it will get much worse. My latest research has shown that by 2100, climate change could drive more than one billion people into a food crisis. This number represents the total number of people alive today, as well as those not yet born, who will experience at least one severe episode of food insecurity before the end of this century. I am a quantitative ecologist — I study nature using data and computer models to understand how the environment and humans respond to major pressures such as climate change, pollution, and land use changes. I developed an artificial intelligence (AI) model to predict how climate change alone could trigger severe food crises. The model was calibrated using food insecurity data from the Famine Early Warnings Systems Network. It also used historical and future temperature and rainfall data available for large parts of the world. Usually, predictions also rely on detailed socioeconomic data (such as incomes, prices, policies, or household behaviors), which are not always available and are also difficult to forecast decades into the future. The model showed that if the world continues to emit high levels of greenhouse gases, over 1.1 billion people globally — including more than 600 million children — will have experienced at least one severe food crisis by 2100. Africa is expected to be particularly hard hit, with over 170 million people in 2099 projected to face food crises — the most severe in the form of outright famine. This is equivalent to the current total population of Italy, France, and Spain. However, if the global industry drastically reduces its carbon emissions and societies move toward more sustainable development, exposure will be more than halved. This underscores how political choices determine whether hundreds of millions of people will be affected by crises — or whether far fewer will be impacted. To develop the model, I used monthly temperature data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and monthly rainfall data from the Climate Hazards Center at the University of California. I combined these data with economic and demographic projections for each country to estimate how people will be exposed to food crises. My research showed that the number of people exposed to severe food insecurity is growing at an alarming rate: it nearly tripled from 50 million in 2011 to almost 150 million in 2020. By 2100, the overall consequences of climate change could be dramatic. More than 1.16 billion people will have experienced at least one hunger crisis. This is largely because many regions where climate impacts are expected to be most intense (such as Central Africa) also have the strongest demographic growth. This means that future hunger burdens are likely to disproportionately affect younger populations before 2100. My study showed that over 600 million children could experience their first food crisis before age five. More than 200 million newborns will be at risk within their first year of life. However, the model also indicated that 780 million people could be spared from food crises by 2100 if the planet moves toward sustainable development rather than inequality and conflict. The AI model actually identified that the number of people experiencing food crises each year could decrease by more than half — from an average of 89 million annually during 2005-2015 to 42 million during 2090-2100 — if governments begin aggressively halting fossil fuel burning and expanding green energy. The model predicts that most future crises will affect already vulnerable regions, especially Africa and Asia. In Africa, food crises are expected to impact a much larger area. The most critical hotspots will be in the Horn of Africa and parts of the Sahel. These regions will form massive, connected areas with high exposure across several million square kilometers in eastern and central Africa. But there is also good news for Africa. The model shows that if Africa reduces conflicts and cuts down on fossil fuel burning, exposure to food crises will decline rapidly after 2050. This means Africa has much more room than Asia to reduce food insecurity by steering development toward climate action and sustainability. Climate change poses a risk to food security, but it is political choices that determine whether that risk turns into a crisis and how severe it becomes. Hundreds of millions of people can be spared from hunger if global policies promote phasing out fossil fuels and advancing sustainable development. It also means that if global industry and governments fail to act and instead choose passivity or continued mismanagement of the climate crisis, the consequences could be catastrophic. It is important to remember that food security cannot be achieved simply by growing more food. Societies can only ensure that everyone has enough to eat if their food systems are resilient to floods, droughts, and other climate crises, and if everyone in society is somehow involved in food production. Climate change will challenge all societies, but coordinated global efforts toward equality, peace, and adaptation can enable communities to respond. However, projections show that we are running out of time — leaving us with an urgent responsibility to act now and provide future children with the food security they deserve. This opinion piece was originally published in English on The Conversation on February 15.