After the European elections, is the “Meloni model” the future of European migration policy?

The elections have come and gone, leaving a sense of numbness. While the dreaded "brown wave" may not have occurred, these latest elections still seem to bear the mark of a new era. One question in particular remains unanswered: what does the future hold for people living in exile in Europe, after an election in which the themes of security and immigration were omnipresent? Will big talk be followed by big action?

A new European reality

While there are as many divergent political analyses as there are political scientists, the consensus is that the issue of migration control had a major influence on the outcome of the vote, and the shift of the European Parliament to the right - a prognosis we documented earlier this year.

For the Spanish daily El Salto, Àngel Ferrero paints a gloomy picture: "The European Union presented its worst face to the world during these elections: a continent entering its demographic winter, in an intellectual swamp, on whose shores lives a population prey to frustration and resentment that the far right has been able to channel and capitalize on like no other".

Externalisation and the Italian model 

How can the far right use the influence it has gained from the European elections? One line of thought is the externalisation of borders, a process already well underway during the previous legislature. 

"The EU had hoped its EU migration and asylum pact, approved in May, might knock the wind out of the sails of far-right parties campaigning on an anti-migrant ticket but now the newly elected far-right parliamentarians might want tougher restrictions," Joanna Gill writes in Context.

"Far-right parties are likely to support new deals to process asylum applications in non-EU countries, and promote further strengthening of the bloc's external borders," Gill observes, "which rights advocates say raises the risk of violent pushbacks."

The newly-formed European Parliament may therefore seize the momentum created by the migration agreements signed with Egypt, Tunisia, Mauritania and Lebanon, and look for new allies outside the EU. This would certainly please Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister (Fratelli d'Italia, far right), whose outsourcing agreement with Albania is due to come into force at the end of August 2024, and who already has ambitions for the European Union to follow her example.

"This agreement could be replicated in many countries and could become part of a structural solution for the European Union," enthused Meloni ahead of the vote, quoted by Alessia Peretti for Euractiv. "This agreement is becoming a model. A few weeks ago, about 15 out of 27 European nations, the majority of the EU, signed an appeal to the Commission, requesting, among other things, that they follow the Italian model. Even Germany, through its interior minister (Nancy Faeser), has expressed interest in this agreement", added the Italian Prime Minister.

Federica Matteoni, for the Berliner Zeitung, agrees with this outlook: "Although the goal has not yet been reached, Meloni's model of outsourcing the examination and processing of asylum procedures to non-EU countries no longer seems to be a taboo in Europe". According to Matteoni, Giorgia Meloni may see alignment with Ursula von der Leyen - currently the favourite for next President of the European Commission - on the issue of migration management. All is still to be decided, however.

"We don't yet know whether Meloni's plan will succeed. Both in Italy and in Albania, human rights organisations are criticising the project," Matteoni points out. "The opposition in Parliament has also criticised the plans, calling them populist measures and warning of their cost, which currently stands at around 800 million euros, but is expected to rise. Opposition politicians also spoke of the risk of creating an 'Italian Guantánamo'". Matteoni also points to the legal shortcomings of the project, given that the European regulatory framework obliges European asylum procedures to take place on EU territory.

What about the migration and asylum pact?

Outsourcing Europe's borders, following the example of Italy in Albania or the UK in Rwanda, could prove to be the most viable path for the European Union. Touching the migration and asylum pact - a legislative package agreed after years of discussion and due to come into force in 2026 - seems unthinkable at this stage. Dalia Frantz, head of European affairs for the association La Cimade, provides a valuable summary in an interview published by Voxeurop. Frantz rightly reminds us that the European level is not the only one at stake. "Obviously, it will also be at the national level that the far right will be able to act."

Indeed, while the European Parliament may be called upon to contemplate further outsourcing deals in the future, some member states have already taken the issue into their own hands. In Poland, the reinstallation of a no-go buffer zone on its border with Belarus was roundly criticised by a group of associations in an open letter to Deputy Minister of Interior and Administration Maciej Duszczyk, published by Krytyka Polityczna. Meanwhile, Finland is preparing - out of view of the international public - to close its border with Russia, in a context of increased "instrumentalized migration", as Ana P. Santos tells in InfoMigrants.

As Ciarán Lawless discussed in a press review published a few weeks ago in Voxeurop, a new political centre is taking shape, embodied by left-leaning personalities who are in favour of stronger migration controls.

If the right, left and centre converge on anything, it's around an emerging consensus - one that's not about to disappear - on the need to combat migration, while questions about human rights, and the adequacy of the resources allocated to restricting entry into Europe, seem more irrelevant than ever.