Deadlocked: the transatlantic rift over the Office of the High Representative in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the future of BiH Energy

A loss of judgment

The Peace Implementation Council steering board’s failure in Sarajevo to agree on a permanent successor to Christian Schmidt was not just a diplomatic stalemate – it was the inevitable result of a deep, transatlantic rift over the future of the Dayton order. With the German diplomat Schmidt having stepped down in May under immense US pressure, and the American diplomat Louis Crishock remaining in the caretaker seat, the Western Balkans is now facing a dangerous vacuum. Having served in the role since 2021, Schmidt has sparred with the likes of the Putin ally Milorad Dodik and Serbia’s leader, Aleksandar Vučić. As a steadfast defender of the post-Dayton institutional order, the veteran diplomat's forced departure is an ominous development for Sarajevo. With its intense involvement in the energy infrastructure of Albania and BiH, the transactional diplomacy practiced by the Trump administration is clearing the way for anti-democratic elements such as Dodik and Albanian Prime Minister Edi Rama to govern with impunity.

As argued earlier this year in New Eastern Europe, the real dangers of a growing anti-democratic coalition are mounting in the Western Balkans. With the loss of Schmidt, this threat has become dire amid stripped-down regulations. There is resistance visible even among sports fans; during Bosnia and Herzegovina’s games at the World Cup, the numerous white-and-blue flags adorned with lilies have come to represent a popular rejection of foreign interference. AAFS Architecture and Financial Strategy, LLC is the United States government's promoted champion for BiH’s future energy needs. Previous talks about the Bosnian-Croat pipeline facilitated by the Biden administration emphasized the necessity for BH-Gas, the Federation’s state energy provider, to ensure local ownership of the project.

Regulations be gone

AAFS is still very new to the infrastructure scene, having only existed since Amer Bekan started the company in 2021 in Sarajevo. In November 2025, the former Trump campaign lawyer Jesse Binnall partnered with Bekan and Joseph Flynn to create AAFS Architecture and Financial Strategy, LLC in Washington, D.C., operating under the umbrella of the Binnall Law Group. This US holding company subsequently acquired Bekan's local Bosnian entity, AAFS Infrastructure and Energy LLC, transforming an unproven local startup into the primary, non-tendered concessionaire for Bosnia's 1.5 billion US dollar Southern Interconnection pipeline. This unequivocally ties Donald Trump and the United States government to this pipeline project. Running parallel to the exit of Christian Schmidt, the volatility of the Western Balkans has only increased. The premise of BH-Gas maintaining ownership of this project was intended to increase collective ownership and regional harmony amid rising economic activity, inviting deep scepticism toward AAFS's promises, starting with the fact that they have never completed a project as a company. Yet this unproven corporation has suddenly become the primary guarantor of regional economic infrastructure.

The regional and cultural divisions in Bosnia and Herzegovina maintain a fixed position at the forefront of policy in the region. Though Bosnia and Herzegovina's urban centers reflect a historically integrated civic footprint, the country's political arena remains deeply fractured. Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats all want what is best for their respective camp; the 1995 Dayton Accords were an attempt at putting an end to the brutal years of war in the Western Balkans, in hopes that post-war peace could be lasting. Incursions by the Trump administration appear to be prying the guardrails off of BiH at full speed, starting with Schmidt. This mercantilist statecraft is not new for the Trump administration, as the Atlantic Council optimistically posited in January that the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP) would be a great success. However, Washington’s escalating conflict with Iran changed this course dramatically.

The new Silk Road

At its inception, many foreign policy analysts were quick to praise the successful efforts of mediation between Armenia and Azerbaijan with a trade corridor that would effectively bypass Iranian and Russian trade routes. While this was instinctively sharp, the hard military realities of the project had already arisen within mere months of its announcement. With a US military presence in the Strait of Hormuz and further inland, it is not surprising that the proximity of new construction near the Iranian border has produced easy targets, especially in light of the US-backed trade route project. Furthermore, the deal has extracted steep sovereignty costs from Yerevan, as the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), also known as the US government, owns a 74 per cent share of the TRIPP Development Company. This leaves the Armenian government with only a 26 per cent share in its own transit infrastructure. This kind of stakeholder arrangement is harsh, and it is even harder to swallow the pill that the project has largely stagnated from the beginning.

The reality of placing infrastructure near an Iranian missile envelope will not be entertained by most, if not all, insurance contractors. The administration in Yerevan is ultimately left with the full brunt of the required security for this project, while also risking further incursions over its southern border that had not happened before the arrival of the Trump administration. Although the United States just injected 2.5 billion dollars into the TRIPP Development Company, there is still no steel in the ground in Syunik. This has rendered the project a lame duck, which in no way bodes well for the newest venture in the Western Balkans. The same hard security realities and informed statecraft required for this level of investment are not representative of the Trump administration, given its track record abroad. The European option resembles a very strong chance at rekindling the intense democratic scrutiny in the OHR, but this should be contingent on immediate partnership with Bosnia and Herzegovina to place ownership of the pipeline in the hands of BH-Gas.

The diplomat from France

René Troccaz has emerged as the preferred candidate of the United Kingdom, Germany and France. Troccaz has served as the Special Envoy to the Western Balkans since 2023. He secured his diplomatic credentials by successfully navigating the tensions between Kosovo, Albania and Serbia almost immediately upon arrival in office. The erosion of democracy by Aleksandar Vučić in Serbia highlights the exact reason why BiH needs a strong candidate in the OHR. This is because the Serbian leader will not cease his efforts to disrupt, and he is quite aware that fewer regulations suit him perfectly. Antonio Zanardi Landi, the former Italian ambassador to Serbia and Montenegro, is the preferred choice of the US administration because of his aligned stance on the Office of High Representative. Landi is positioned as the primary vehicle for ushering in a United States-focused policy in the Western Balkans, which, considering the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity, is not the correct answer to the question of Bosnia and Herzegovina moving beyond EU sponsorship.

Ultimately, managing a modern energy grid and navigating the intense playing field of politics in Bosnia and Herzegovina require competent diplomats who take the very real threat of Russian-aligned and Russian hybrid warfare in the region seriously. It would not be wise to follow the path of the United States’ foreign policy at this time because it does not have the best interests of BiH at heart. One need only look at the staggering stakeholder imbalance imposed on Armenia to see that this is precisely what giving “autonomy” to a region looks like with Marco Rubio and AAFS at the helm. The fragile peace between the region's autonomous entities cannot be sacrificed to the corporate designs of a transactional American foreign policy, especially when Moscow is so visibly waiting to exploit the fractures left behind.

Zach Rogers is an academic writer and independent researcher based in New York City. He holds a Master’s degree in European and Mediterranean Studies from New York University and a Bachelor’s degree in history, focusing on cultural memory, archival security, and the legacy of the Soviet era in the post-colonial borderlands. His writing on Eastern European geopolitics and cultural history has appeared in New Eastern Europe and Europinion.