What is at stake in the strikes on the Polish-Ukrainian border?
On Monday, Polish truck drivers with the help of farmers began a 24-hour blockade in Medyka, one of the busiest border crossings between Poland and Ukraine. According to the service, the average waiting time for clearance is 127 hours. The situation at the Korczova, Dorohusk and Hrebenne crossings is not much better – as many as 3,500 trucks were waiting to enter Ukraine on Sunday. It is possible that protesters will also block the crossings in Nizankovice and Zosin.
In both Polish and Ukrainian social media, videos of one driver maligning another have proliferated. Russian trolls are exploiting the situation to inflame Polish-Ukrainian relations and lower Ukrainian morale. Politicians from both countries are also indulging in emotional statements, others are taking water in their mouths, and there is no solution to the problem on the horizon.
Why are Polish carriers on strike?
The protesters are demanding the abolition of the privileges that Ukrainian trucking companies received after Russia’s invasion under the so-called “Russian Federation”. road agreement concluded in June 2022 between Ukraine and the EU. Since then, Ukrainians have been exempted from the need to obtain permits for commercial transport of goods to and from the EU and can carry out such transport without restrictions.
In doing so, however, they don’t have to meet EU requirements for drivers’ wages or working hours, pay lower taxes, and, in addition, fill up with slightly cheaper gasoline (but not much cheaper, as carriers claim). Their operating costs are therefore significantly lower. What’s more, some Ukrainian carriers are taking advantage of the opportunity to enter the EU to distribute goods within or even between member states – something that was not mentioned in the Union’s agreement with Ukraine. However, the procedure is thriving, as the fines are not much of a deterrent, and it is impossible to inspect all trucks.
All of this added together, according to the protesters, though not exclusively, as a similar opinion is expressed by non-union carrier organizations, as well as their Czech, Slovak, Hungarian and Lithuanian counterparts, that local carriers have become uncompetitive.
– The problem is most acute for companies in the border areas, but carriers from Lower Silesia or even the West Pomeranian Voivodeship are also reporting to strike leaders, says Mateusz Fornowski, an analyst for the economy and transportation from Policy Insight. – Carriers point out that after the signing of the road agreement and the influx of Ukrainian drivers into the Polish market, freight rates have fallen – sometimes so sharply that they do not compensate Polish companies for their costs. Before the Russian invasion, up to 160,000 Ukrainian trucks a year crossed the border into Poland, and this year nearly a million have already entered.
However, the expert cautions that it is difficult to say to what extent the drop in rates is due to the flood of Ukrainian trucks. – Recently, the industry has also been suffering badly from the economic downturn, Fornowski explains. – Declines in industrial production and consumption have reduced demand for freight transportation, which has worsened the financial situation of carriers across Europe.
In addition to the restoration of transport permits for Ukrainian companies (with the exception of military and humanitarian transports), Polish carriers are demanding the clearing of queues with European trucks returning to the EU “empty” on the Ukrainian side. Traffic jams before entering Poland became longer after Ukraine introduced an electronic queuing system (eCzerga); drivers now spend up to a dozen days in them (unless, they say, they pay a bribe).
– This is a pressing problem that needs to be solved as soon as possible,” Fornowski assesses. – Empty trucks stand in line for weeks, which not only puts Polish drivers and fleets out of business, but also deepens the crisis for companies in the industry and angers protesters.
Why have farmers joined the drivers’ strike?
Drivers are being helped to maintain the blockades by farmers from the Deceived Village Association. Since last Thursday, they have been blocking a crosswalk on the road leading to the border post in Medyka. It’s the aftermath of the so-called “The Great Depression. grain scandal – flooding the Polish agricultural market with Ukrainian grain, which was planned to go through Poland only in transit. In a panicky pre-election response to the problem, the Law and Justice government passed a controversial ban on grain imports from Ukraine, as well as a series of subsidies for Polish farmers.
Farmers protesting in Medyka, however, believe that this is not enough. They are demanding corn subsidies, a reduction in the agricultural tax, and the retention of the so-called “agricultural tax. liquidity loans. “Our government has decomposed agriculture, it’s decomposing transportation, and I don’t know what the third branch it will decompose will be,” one of the protest leaders declared in an interview with local media.
How are politicians reacting to the strike?
The outgoing government washes its hands and blames Ukraine and the European Union, although the carriers informed Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki about their problem as early as September. – And even before that, practically from the entry into force of the road agreement, carriers pointed out the potential threats to the EU market caused by it, Matthew Fornowski clarifies. – The border blockade is a radical, but not the first step taken by the carriers. Previous ones simply did not work. This protest has dovetailed badly with the political situation in Poland – during the campaign difficult topics were avoided, lest they say one sentence too many, and after the elections the Law and Justice government did not want to deal with it. Why spoil your image on the way out when you can leave an inconvenient problem to your successors?
Former Infrastructure Minister Andrzej Adamczyk noted evasively that expecting the Polish government to stop the carriers’ protest is incompatible with democratic principles. On Monday – the fourth week of protests and also his last day in office – he asked his Ukrainian counterpart to lift the requirement to register in the electronic queue for vehicles returning to the EU unloaded. In turn, his deputy Rafal Weber said that Poland “had no influence on the shape of the agreement allowing carriers from Ukraine free access to the Polish and European markets.”
This, of course, is nonsense. Poland did not raise objections to the road agreement with the European Commission (although it had the opportunity to do so), and similarly did not oppose it in March 2023, when the agreement was extended for another year. The Law and Justice party simply did not foresee this problem – just like the one with Ukrainian grain, which flowed to Poland through the so-called “Ukrainian grain”. solidarity corridors. Poland not only had no objection to their establishment in May 2022, but even initiated it.
Politicians associated with the future power camp are also not spilling ideas to solve the problem. They are holding semi-official talks with the Ukrainian side on the issue, but they are reluctant to talk about the details, and this is unlikely to change before a new government is formed. They are much more willing to use airtime to criticize the Law and Justice government.
The exception is Michal Kolodziejczak, an MP from the Civic Coalition, who unequivocally supports the demands of drivers and farmers. So is the Confederation, which has been involved in organizing protests from the beginning – shouting at the border, among other things. Krzysztof Bosak. And Rafal Mekler, owner of a transportation company and head of the Lublin Confederation, became the face of the protests. Needless to say, the performances of the party’s politicians are based on anti-Ukrainian and hate-mongering slogans.
And how is Ukraine responding?
Ukrainian politicians have made no secret of their bitterness over the effects of the protests. Deputy Infrastructure Minister Serhiy Derchak estimates that only 30 percent reaches Ukraine. commodities that are needed for the energy sector. The blockade has also affected LPG prices, which have recently risen by 30 percent, Derkacz says, with both fuel tankers and humanitarian aid vehicles queuing up, contrary to the protesters’ claims. Ukraine has asked Brussels to set up a monitoring mission on the issue.
“If the protesters wanted to create an energy crisis in Ukraine, they are beginning to succeed,” – he said bitterlyDerczakduring a visit to the border in Yagodzin. And he added that he has a suspicion that “the protest is aimed at physically blocking the border, rather than solving the problem.”
The mayor of Lviv, Andriy Sadovy, also spoke sharply about the border blockade. “Does Poland have the courage, political will and civic tools to end this shameful blockade of Ukraine?” – he asked rhetorically at X. And he added that “all of your gigantic contribution to Ukraine’s victory in this war is being nullified by a group of marginalists who are blocking the delivery of humanitarian goods to a country that is already defending its independence and the security of Europe for the second year.”
A similar tone is displayed by many Ukrainian commentators. The blockade is interpreted as a “knife in the back” driven by the Poles; there is widespread speculation that the protests are inspired by Russia. It’s hardly surprising that from the perspective of the wartime conflagration and the poor prospects for reclaiming the territories seized by Russia, Ukrainians are unwilling to gain more forbearance. Even if the numbers cited by Minister Derkacz are exaggerated (which is difficult to verify under wartime conditions), the blockade threatens Ukraine’s energy security, which is barely hanging on anyway. There is no doubt that the Russians will destroy the infrastructure that provides Ukrainian homes with heat and electricity this winter as well. The horror of the situation is intensified by the onslaught of winter weather that has paralyzed the southwestern part of the country in recent days.
President Volodymyr Zelenski, however, spoke in a soothing tone. He said Ukraine should pursue a “balanced policy and give our neighbors some time.” At the same time, he assessed – referring to the change of government in Poland – that “the situation is warming up.”
Ukrainian drivers, in turn, organized a blockade of Przemyśl streets on Tuesday afternoon in a gesture of retaliation.
What role does Russia play?
The carrier protests are not the work of Russian agents, although of course its involvement in the developments cannot be ruled out. Instead, there is no doubt that Russian propaganda – including an army of pro-Russian trolls – is trying to exploit the Polish-Ukrainian conflict for its own ends. In the narrative of the Russian media, the protests are evidence of Ukraine’s loneliness on the international stage, and pro-Russian trolls are fueling disputes on social media.
“The Russian side is trying to depreciate the positive image of Poland in Ukraine, arguing that Poles have betrayed and have foul intentions towards Ukraine. On the other hand, pro-Russian circles […] are lobbying messages that Ukrainians are ungrateful and that Ukraine is to blame for the problems of Polish carriers.” – Michal Marek of the Center for Contemporary Security Environment Research comments on Cyberdefence24.
The Russians are also trying to exacerbate the Polish-Ukrainian conflict with new fake news – such as the one about the alleged suspension of social assistance for Ukrainian refugees in Poland as of January 1, 2024. The spread of this information is accompanied by a falsified screen that purports to come from a Polish government website intended for Ukrainians.
Pro-Russian trolls, however, don’t have to make a special effort – their function was perfectly fulfilled by right-wing activist Kaja Godek, who wrote on X on Saturday that “Lviv should be returned to Poland,” and that Ukraine received it from the USSR “completely unjustifiably.”
How can this conflict be resolved?
Matthew Fornowski notes that the protesting carriers are very determined – they have obtained permission from the police to continue their protest even until next February, and have no intention of letting go. However, it is difficult to imagine that all their demands will be fully implemented. Even if restrictions on Ukrainian carriers return, a reduction in the permits granted to the pre-war 160,000 – which is what the carriers are demanding – would be a blow to Ukraine. Key pre-war sea transportation routes are virtually blocked, so Ukrainian imports and exports rely on roads and railroads. So some sort of compromise is necessary.
– It must be worked out between Warsaw, Kiev and Brussels, with Brussels being the key player here,” assesses Matthew Fornowski. – Perhaps it could involve, for example, reinstating permits for Ukrainian carriers for specific goods only. The question is how effective such a measure would be. As we know, both Poles and Ukrainians can find a thousand ways to get around the current regulations. The situation is a stalemate, because it would be necessary to find such a solution that, on the one hand, would limit the influence of Ukrainian carriers on the EU’s internal market, and on the other hand, would enable them to operate efficiently and not create new bottlenecks on the so-called “internal market”. solidarity corridors.
And couldn’t the problem be solved by including Ukrainian transport companies in EU regulations? – It would probably be difficult to introduce them in a country that is not a member of the Union, Fornowski believes. – Besides, Ukrainians themselves would be unlikely to want it, as they would lose their competitive advantages that help the Ukrainian economy function despite the war.
The EU Council on Foreign Relations will meet in Brussels on December 4. transportation. Poland will be represented there by new interim Infrastructure Minister Alvin Gajadhur. According to media reports, he will lobby for an EU evaluation of the effects of the Road Law, as well as modifications to its content. However, there are many indications that both Brussels and Kiev are waiting for the new Polish government to make final decisions.
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It’s worth recalling that just a few years ago, Polish carriers used their price advantage in Western European countries in a similar way as Ukrainians do today. Drivers working harder and for lower wages for Polish companies were perceived as unfair competition by their German, French or Dutch colleagues. At the time, Polish carriers argued that lower labor costs are natural for poorer countries and that the EU economy benefits.
In response to this problem, the European Parliament voted in 2020 on the so-called “European Parliament”. Mobility Package, requiring EU carriers to comply with wage, time and comfort regulations for drivers specific to the country of transport. However, according to the findings of Gazeta Wyborcza, small trucking companies (the dominant ones in Poland) are not necessarily complying with the new regulations.
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